Rate of return for the next decade?

[anyone]

We now know that bitcoin will be added to many portfolios as it can oddly enough "REDUCE" volatility and add an uncorrelated part to your portfolio (more correlated as of late however we need to look 5 years out)

Has anyone calculated the rate of return bitcoin should expect per year? Seems like 100-189% should be the average. Obviously it could have larger increases and of course 50-70%+ declines.


But just like the benchmark S&P has close to 10% what can we expect bitcoin to return over the course of 5-10 years so you can position your portfolio accordingly.


edit: eventually returns should diminish to close to 5-10% as this vehicle matures....the years of super high growth of 11,000%+ seem to be over while it should churn out triple digits one would expect those to decline over the years and become quite stable

 

[The CC Forums]

We now know that bitcoin will be added to many portfolios as it can oddly enough "REDUCE" volatility and add an uncorrelated part to your portfolio (more correlated as of late however we need to look 5 years out)

Has anyone calculated the rate of return bitcoin should expect per year? Seems like 100-189% should be the average. Obviously it could have larger increases and of course 50-70%+ declines.

But just like the benchmark S&P has close to 10% what can we expect bitcoin to return over the course of 5-10 years so you can position your portfolio accordingly.

edit: eventually returns should diminish to close to 5-10% as this vehicle matures....the years of super high growth of 11,000%+ seem to be over while it should churn out triple digits one would expect those to decline over the years and become quite stable

That’s definitely the interesting question of the year. Returns will certainly cool off. I have a couple of assumptions for my crypto buys:

1. Investment return for the next 2-4 years is unlikely to match the 2017 bubble gains.

2. Quality projects with use case, function and commuted developers will provide good return; the rest will fall away.

3. On a risk-adjusted reward basis, only a few cryptos will make sense compared to stock market growth over the next 5-10 year period.

4. You can’t game or time crypto. Many studies have shown missing the best 10 days of stock gains per year vastly reduces your long term returns. I’m betting we’ll see the same for crypto once longer periods have been studied.

Sitting on sidelines is a guessing game. Because of this, I employ a buy and hold dollar cost averaging hybrid method of investing. In crypto terms, I buy the dips.

 

[Old Man Crypto]

That’s definitely the interesting question of the year. Returns will certainly cool off. I have a couple of assumptions for my crypto buys:

1. Investment return for the next 2-4 years is unlikely to match the 2017 bubble gains.

2. Quality projects with use case, function and commuted developers will provide good return; the rest will fall away.

3. On a risk-adjusted reward basis, only a few cryptos will make sense compared to stock market growth over the next 5-10 year period.

4. You can’t game or time crypto. Many studies have shown missing the best 10 days of stock gains per year vastly reduces your long term returns. I’m betting we’ll see the same for crypto once longer periods have been studied.

Sitting on sidelines is a guessing game. Because of this, I employ a buy and hold dollar cost averaging hybrid method of investing. In crypto terms, I buy the dips.

On a risk reward adjusted basis, almost no one should invest in crypto. I’m concerned that markets have figured this out and retail investors have fled never to return. Was hoping Wall Street would provide a boost giving retail buyers a reason to come back but now I’m not sure.

Between ETF’s and major players who previously announced plans but now have gone silent, I wonder if any new money is coming. Add in the ICO scams that you guys have covered, and things look bleak.

 

[The CC Forums]

On a risk reward adjusted basis, almost no one should invest in crypto. I’m concerned that markets have figured this out.

And yet here we all are.

 

[CryptoTC]

No one can answer the question. If we knew the rate of return, we’d all be rich soon.

It’s all pure guessing. Diversify. Own different asset classes. Jan-Aug 2018 altcoin markets should have taught some younger investors that. Don’t put it all in crypto.